Extinction of the Human Species.
Human Extinction.
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About the Show
The possibility of human extinction has received growing academic attention over the last several decades. Research has analysed possible pathways to human extinction, as well as ethical considerations relating to human survival. Potential causes of human extinction can be loosely grouped into exogenous threats such as an asteroid impact and anthropogenic threats such as war or a catastrophic physics accident. In all cases, an outcome as extreme as human extinction would require events or developments that either have been of very low probability historically or are entirely unprecedented. This introduces deep uncertainty and methodological challenges to the study of the topic. This review provides an overview of potential human extinction causes considered plausible in the current academic literature, experts’ judgements of likelihood where available and a synthesis of ethical and social debates relating to the study of human extinction.
Human extinction may seem unlikely, but cannot be ruled out as a possibility. We now know that there have been cataclysmic events in the past that might have wiped out humans were those events to occur now. Novel threats to human civilisation are now posed by our own activities, both in the form of climate change and environmental degradation and in the form of powerful weapons such as nuclear weapons and emerging technologies such as artificial intelligence (AI) and engineered biology. These risks are the subject of a growing body of research. By reviewing this scholarship, and the evidence for claims that have been made regarding various risks, this review aims to inform the reader of the current state of knowledge in the field. The review aims to be a resource for both academic readers and decision-makers on the state of knowledge regarding a variety of risks – how likely they are and how robust the evidence is. This synthesis will aid experts and decision-makers in assessing how much weight to give concerns regarding human extinction and how to prioritise efforts to reduce or mitigate these risks.
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Recent Episodes
35 - Origins and analysis of extinction hypotheses.
35 - Origins and analysis of extinction hypotheses. As a result of the extensive nuclear fallout of the 1954 Castle Bravo nuclear detonation, author Nevil Shute wrote the popular novel On the Beach,…
34 - Nuclear famine.
34 - Nuclear famine. It is difficult to estimate the number of casualties that would result from nuclear winter, but it is likely that the primary effect would be global famine (known as nuclear…
33 - Effects of nuclear war.
33 - Effects of nuclear war. Historically, it has been difficult to estimate the total number of deaths resulting from a global nuclear exchange because scientists are continually discovering new…
32 - Likelihood of complete human extinction.
32 - Likelihood of complete human extinction. Many scholars have posited that a global thermonuclear war with Cold War-era stockpiles, or even with the current smaller stockpiles, may lead to human…
31 - Likelihood of nuclear war.
31 - Likelihood of nuclear war. As of 2021, humanity has about 13,410 nuclear weapons, thousands of which are on hair-trigger alert. While stockpiles have been on the decline following the end of…
30 - Nuclear Holocaust.
30 - Nuclear Holocaust. A nuclear holocaust, also known as a nuclear apocalypse, nuclear annihilation, nuclear armageddon, or atomic holocaust, is a theoretical scenario where the mass detonation of…
29 - Ethics.
29 - Ethics. Value of human life. "Existential risks" are risks that threaten the entire future of humanity, whether by causing human extinction or by otherwise permanently crippling human…
28 - Probability.
28 - Probability. From nuclear weapons. On November 13, 2024, the American Enterprise Institute estimated a probability of nuclear war during the 21st century between 0% and 80%. A 2023 article of…
27 - Risk estimates.
27 - Risk estimates. Given the limitations of ordinary observation and modeling, expert elicitation is frequently used instead to obtain probability estimates. Humanity has a 95% probability of…
26 - Probability.
26 - Probability. Natural vs. anthropogenic. Experts generally agree that anthropogenic existential risks are (much) more likely than natural risks. A key difference between these risk types is…
25 - Atomic era.
25 - Atomic era. The invention of the atomic bomb prompted a wave of discussion among scientists, intellectuals, and the public at large about the risk of human extinction. In a 1945 essay, Bertrand…
24 - Human Extinction.
24 - Human Extinction. Human extinction, or omnicide, is the hypothetical end of the human species, either by population decline due to extraneous natural causes, for example asteroid impact or…
23 - Influence on Policy, Philosophy, and Public Debate.
23 - Influence on Policy, Philosophy, and Public Debate. Concerns over human extinction risks have prompted discussions in international policy forums, particularly regarding artificial intelligence…
22 - Representations in Culture and Discourse.
22 - Representations in Culture and Discourse. Fictional Depictions and Popular Media. Fictional depictions of human extinction predominantly appear in science fiction, serving as allegories for…
21 - Societal Adaptation and Long-Term Planning.
21 - Societal Adaptation and Long-Term Planning. Societal adaptation to existential risks requires institutional reforms that extend decision-making horizons beyond electoral cycles and immediate…
20 - Technological Innovations and Defensive Measures.
20 - Technological Innovations and Defensive Measures. Technological innovations aimed at mitigating existential risks to humanity include advancements in planetary defense, artificial intelligence…
19 - Strategies for Risk Reduction and Resilience.
19 - Strategies for Risk Reduction and Resilience. Governance and International Safeguards. International governance mechanisms addressing existential risks from human extinction focus on specific…
18 - Fringe Perspectives: Voluntary Extinction Advocacy.
18 - Fringe Perspectives: Voluntary Extinction Advocacy. The Voluntary Human Extinction Movement (VHEMT) advocates for the gradual, voluntary phase-out of the human species through the cessation of…
17 - Critiques of Extinction Alarmism and Overprediction.
17 - Critiques of Extinction Alarmism and Overprediction. Critics of extinction alarmism argue that predictions of imminent human extinction from anthropogenic risks, such as climate change,…
16 - Obligations to Future Generations from First Principles.
16 - Obligations to Future Generations from First Principles. From foundational ethical reasoning, obligations to future generations arise from the recognition that human actions causally determine…
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