Justified Posteriors
Seth Benzell and Andrey Fradkin
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Recent Episodes
Kevin Bryan on Bottlenecks, AI in China, and What Economists Should Actually Be Working On
This week we to with Kevin Bryan, Associate Professor of Strategy at the University of Toronto’s Rotman School, author of the legendary economics blog A Fine Theorem, co-founder of the ed-tech…
Seb Krier on AGI, the Coasean Singularity, and EDM
Seb Krier on AGI, Scaffolding, and Coasean Bargaining at ScaleIn this episode of Justified Posteriors, we welcome Seb Krier — policy lead for AGI at Google DeepMind and excellent Twitter poster.…
Avi Goldfarb on Prediction Machines, O-Ring Tasks, and How AI is Reshaping Economics
This week, we’re joined by Avi Goldfarb, one of the leading economists of artificial intelligence and co-author of Prediction Machines. Avi has been thinking seriously about AI economics long before…
The classic model that shows why AI exposure could increase wages
Get full access to Justified Posteriors at empiricrafting.substack.com/subscribeThis week, instead of reviewing a recent paper on AI, we go back to a 1993 classic: Michael Kremer’s “The O-Ring Theory…
The Most Important Philosophical Treatise of the 21st Century?
This week, instead of reviewing an economics paper, we reviewed a work of philosophy—perhaps the most important one of this young millennium so far. Anthropic published its new constitution for…
Alex Imas - Demand Collapse, Bargaining with Machines, and Behavioral AI Economics
University of Chicago behavioral economist Alex Imas joins us for a conversation on AI, economic growth, behavioral economics, and the future of science. We discuss whether AI could ever lead to…
The Economics of Book Slop
In this episode, Seth and Andrey break down AI and the Quantity and Quality of Creative Products: Have LLMs Boosted Creation of Valuable Books? by Imke Reimers and Joel Waldfogel, presented at the…
Noah Smith on Blogging, AI Economics, and Elite Overproduction
We sit down with prominent blogger and economist Noah Smith to dig into the disconnect between AI hype and current macroeconomic reality. The central puzzle: if a “god machine” driving 20% annual GDP…
Basil Halperin: Leading Indicators for TAI, Conditions for the Singularity, and Tax Policy at the End of History
In this week’s episode of Justified Posteriors, we interview TAI expert and friend of the show Basil Halperin of the University of Virginia. There Basil is doing some of the most fascinating work on…
Can an AI Interview You Better Than a Human?
We discuss “Voice in AI Firms: A Natural Field Experiment on Automated Job Interviews” by Brian Jabarian and Luca Henkel. The paper examines a randomized experiment with call center job applicants in…
Anecdotes from AI Supercharged Science
Anecdotes of AI Supercharged Science: Justified Posteriors reads “Early Science Acceleration Experiments with GPT-5”In this episode, Seth and Andrey break down OpenAI’s report, Early Science…
Ben Golub: AI Referees, Social Learning, and Virtual Currencies
In this episode, we sit down with Ben Golub, economist at Northwestern University, to talk about what happens when AI meets academic research, social learning, and network theory.We start with Ben’s…
Are We There Yet? Evaluating METR’s Eval of AI’s Ability to Complete Tasks of Different Lengths
Seth and Andrey are back to evaluating an AI evaluation, this time discussing METR’s paper “Measuring AI Ability to Complete Long Tasks.” The paper’s central claim is that the “effective horizon” of…
Epistemic Apocalypse and Prediction Markets (Bo Cowgill Pt. 2)
We continue our conversation with Columbia professor Bo Cowgill. We start with a detour through Roman Jakobson’s six functions of language (plus two bonus functions Seth insists on adding:…
Does AI Cheapen Talk? (Bo Cowgill Pt. 1)
In this episode, we brought on our friend Bo Cowgill, to dissect his forthcoming Management Science paper, Does AI Cheapen Talk? The core question is one economists have been circling since Spence…
Evaluating GDPVal, OpenAI's Eval for Economic Value
In this episode of Justified Posteriors podcast, Seth and Andrey discuss “GDPVal” a new set of AI evaluations, really a novel approach to AI evaluation, from OpenAI. The metric is debuted in a new…
Will Super-Intelligence's Opportunity Costs Save Human Labor?
In this episode, Seth Benzell and Andrey Fradkin read “We Won’t Be Missed: Work and Growth in the AGI World” by Pascual Restrepo (Yale) to understand what how AGI will change work in the long run. A…
Can political science contribute to the AI discourse?
Economists generally see AI as a production technology, or input into production. But maybe AI is actually more impactful as unlocking a new way of organizing society. Finish this story: * The…
Should AI Read Without Permission?
Many of today’s thinkers and journalists worry that AI models are eating their lunch: hoovering up these authors’ best ideas and giving them away for free or nearly free. Beyond fairness, there is a…
EMERGENCY POD: Is AI already causing youth unemployment?
In our first ever EMERGENCY PODCAST, co-host Seth Benzell is summoned out of paternity leave by Andrey Fradkin to discuss the AI automation paper that’s making headlines around the world. The paper…
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Justified Posteriors has published 39 episodes since December 2024, covering topics in Business, Society & Culture.
Justified Posteriors is currently highly active with new episodes every 2 weeks. Average episode length is 1h 2m.
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