Van Hesser's 3 Things in Credit - A KBRA Podcast
KBRA
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About the Show
Each week, KBRA's Chief Strategist, Van Hesser will address three things that caught his attention in credit markets that are relevant to credit investors.
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244 episodes — long track record
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Recent Episodes
Deflation, Credit Loss Cycle, and CCC Signal.
This week, our 3 Things are:Deflation. It’s a check on the market’s most significant near-term risk. Credit loss cycle. Is it upon us? CCC signal. What the weakest credits are suggesting.
Hyperscaler Debt Issuance, Next-Wave Growth, and Industrial Renaissance
This week, our 3 Things are:Hyperscaler debt issuance. Funding the AI build-out goes global. Next-wave growth. Beyond AI and wealthy household spending, these forces will help. Industrial…
Waller Redirect, Income Slowdown, and 2026 Default Forecasts.
This week, our 3 Things are:1. Waller redirect. One of the Fed’s thought leaders says risks have changed. We’ll dig into what he’s seeing. 2. Income slowdown. The raw material that drives the economy…
Rates’ Risk, Stock vs. Bond Volatility, and Consumer Color.
This week, our 3 Things are:Rates’ risk. What does it mean for credit?Stock vs. bond volatility. Something has to give. Consumer color. We canvas bellwether transcripts for an up-to-date view.
Jobs Rebound, Shock Watch, and Historic Uncertainty.
This week, our 3 Things are:Jobs rebound. Have we reached an inflection point?Shock watch. Inflation, energy, and food are all set to move the wrong way. Is this priced into risk? Historic…
Changing Narratives, Earnings Surge, and Nonlinear Oil Move
This week, our 3 Things are:1. Changing narratives. Better visibility and perspective on issues that drove a selloff in risk earlier this spring.2. Earnings surge. It’s not just tech. 3. Nonlinear…
What We’re Watching, Defaults Two Ways, and Oil Price Perspective
This week, our 3 Things are:1. What we’re watching. Fresh off the press from our Forward Look publication.2. Defaults two ways. We compare market prices to the bottom-up view. 3. Oil price…
Earnings Growth, Bank Exposure to Nonbanks, and Constructive Pessimism
This week, our 3 Things are:Earnings growth. One observer describes earnings growth as “soaring.” Is that right?Bank exposure to nonbanks. Should we be worried about the linkage?Constructive…
Growth Shock vs. Inflation Shock, Big Bank Credit Color, and IMF Sours
This week, our 3 Things are:1. Growth shock vs. inflation shock. What’s the biggest risk?2. Big bank credit color. Real-time read on credit from the largest lenders.3. IMF sours. Its latest forecasts…
Resiliency, Dimon on Credit, Consumer Trends
This week, our 3 Things are:Resiliency. The U.S. economy has demonstrated that in spades. But is it sustainable?Dimon on credit. Getting past the headlines.Consumer trends. We identify three flying…
Shock Risk, Loan Growth Surge, and Earnings Relief
This week, our 3 Things are:1. Shock risk. Risk is rising, but will credit reprice?2. Loan growth surge. Where did that come from?3. Earnings relief. Good news is on the horizon.
Earnings vs. Oil, Systemic Leverage, and Stagflation
This week, our 3 Things are:1. Earnings vs. oil. We have an interesting comparison between the two.2. Systemic leverage. Don’t lose sight of where we stand.3. Stagflation. Is it really back?
Bond Havens, Oracle Reassures, and Risk Reprice
This week, our 3 Things are:1. Bond havens. The flight to quality has shifted.2. Oracle reassures. An AI lightning rod reports earnings and outlook.3. Risk reprice. Where is it happening?
Productivity Boom or Savings Drain, Labor Pessimism, and Inflation Pressure
This week, our 3 Things are:Productivity boom or savings drain? Peeling the onion on sources of growth.Labor pessimism. Is the jobs picture really “weak and fragile”? Inflation pressure. It’s…
Fed in Flux, Single-Bs Widening, and HALOs
This week, our 3 Things are:1. Fed in flux. Moving toward neutral.2. Single-Bs widening. What does it signal?3. HALOs. A new investing acronym and a sign of the times.
Delinquencies Warning, Utilities Unicorns, and K-Shapes
This week, our 3 Things are:1. Delinquencies warning. Is that really a thing???2. Utilities unicorns. Can a sector be both defensive and growth?3. K-Shapes. They’re present in places beyond the…
Retail Sales Disconnect, Labor’s Lost Leverage, and Rising Hyperscaler Issuance
This week, our 3 Things are:1. Retail sales disconnect. It’s normalizing, but not as weak as the latest data.2. Labor’s lost leverage. More of the economic spoils are going to capital—is that a bad…
Margin Lift, Excitable Risk, and The Path of Interest Rates
This week, our 3 Things are:Margin lift. They’re high and expected to go higher.Excitable risk. Volatility is back. Just how much matters to credit fundamentals?The path of interest rates. The…
What We’re Watching, Visa/Mastercard Spending Update, and KBRA DLD Default Forecasts
This week, our 3 Things are:1. What we’re watching. Here’s what we believe will shape credit valuation over the near-term.2. Visa/Mastercard spending update. The latest read from the global payments…
Bond Vigilantes, The Cost of Gloom, and Biggest Risks
This week, our 3 Things are:Bond vigilantes. Volatility has come to sovereign debt markets. What’s next?The cost of gloom. The Economist newspaper says it’s the world’s main economic risk. Biggest…
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